大選專欄－柯文哲鬆口！藍白合真有譜？郭台銘成關鍵X因子！
2023-07-19 政治中心／綜合報導
藍白合，不是一個單純1+1=2的問題（翻攝畫面）。
去年九合一大選，日本知名台灣政治研究學者小笠原欣幸（Yoshiyuki Ogasawara）準確預測縣市長選舉結果，22縣市除金門縣外全都預測成功， 對於選戰鞭辟入裡的分析讓台灣民眾讚聲不斷。上週，小笠原欣幸發表明年台灣總統大選最新分析文章，並針對「藍白合」發表看法。他表示：「這並不是一個單純1+1=2的問題。支持柯文哲的年輕人中有很多人討厭國民黨，因此他們可能會選擇不投票。以前也曾有宋楚瑜的親民黨，與國民黨聯盟而失去成長性的前例，柯文哲很清楚這點。 」
根據《菱傳媒》委託皮爾森數據負責執行的最新總統網路支度民調顯示，目前三人支持度仍以賴清德居冠，拿下38.48%，柯文哲28.34%居次，侯友宜21.29%墊底。在三方支持度變動不大的情況下，藍白合也隨著柯文哲的發言，愈來愈有可能成真。
日本學者小笠原欣幸針對明年台灣總統大選最新分析文章，並發表「藍白合」看法（翻攝畫面）。
霧裡看花的藍白合真有譜？
藍白是否真的能合？是許多中間選民關注的焦點。昨日，柯文哲接受廣播節目專訪時針對藍百合略為鬆口：「順其自然，再拖一個月、二個月，有時候真的水到渠成。天才的火花可以到處閃現，可是你要燒起來，一定要有那個環境，現在環境還很混沌。 」 對比上個月柯文哲的發言：「兩個不同的政黨要有共同的理念價值，不然會很難得到台灣人民的支持。」對於藍白合的態度軟化，是未來一個月觀察的重點。
我們從甫落幕的716公平正義大遊行可以一窺端倪，國民黨總統參選人侯友宜、民眾黨總統參選人柯文哲與鴻海創辦人郭台銘三人首度公開同台。柯文哲上台後瞬間點燃民眾激情，歡呼聲將近一分鐘，凱道儼然成為造勢主場。反觀侯友宜上台時飽受噓聲與倒讚狂洗，甚至有民眾高舉「友宜不投」的標語，場面略顯難堪。動向尚未明朗的郭台銘在台上高呼與年輕人們站在一起，「接地氣」的演說內容獲得不錯的反映。下台之後繼續與群眾合影，氣氛熱烈。
對比柯文哲的高漲聲勢以及侯友宜的淒涼慘況，讓柯文哲運籌帷幄，不輕易擾動目前對自己有利的局勢，對藍白合保持略顯開放態度。而國民黨陣營就比較麻煩，除了要拯救侯友宜低迷的選情外，還得面對步步進逼的郭台銘。
柯文哲握有民調優勢，運籌帷幄（翻攝畫面）！
不放棄總統大夢 郭台銘的野望？
根據《菱傳媒》委託皮爾森數據進行「2024總統大選」網路民意調查結果顯示，若郭台銘參選，賴清德的支持度一樣高達38.23%，柯文哲25.29%居次，侯友宜20.39%，郭台銘則是9.22%墊底。其中，郭台銘支持度有三成來自柯文哲支持者。
雖郭台銘參選難以改變目前局勢，但對於選情將會帶來一定程度的影響，除了打擊國民黨之外，也能有效瓜分柯文哲的票源，調動非綠板塊的支持結構。前日，郭台銘投書《華盛頓郵報》主動出擊，怒嗆民進黨，撰文宣揚和平理念並闡述兩岸觀點，引發廣大討論，達到壯大聲勢的效果。
本月底，郭台銘預計將訪問美國，訪問行程結束後局勢會更加明朗。觀察目前情勢，郭台銘參選總統的路只剩連署獨立參選以及與柯文哲合作兩個選項。據了解，目前仍以推動「郭柯配」可能性最大，在三咖督的情況下，最有機會實現郭柯兩人拉下民進黨的野望。若形成四咖督的情形只會讓賴清德躺著當選，恐怕不是兩人所樂見的。
郭台銘牛棚熱身中，隨時登板投球！
反綠板塊整合 侯友宜成孤島？
對比幾個月前，柯文哲對藍白合的拒斥，近日的鬆口又為選戰激起了一絲漣漪。對反綠陣營來說，郭柯配若成真很有可能追上民調領先的賴清德，達成「下架民進黨」的目標，成為改變局勢的那陣大海嘯，也會迫使賴清德提出更積極的選戰策略。另一方面，若是侯友宜的表現持續不振，無法讓泛藍選民歸隊，在三咖督的情況下恐將成為選民 「棄保」的對象，讓泛藍陣營的票湧入柯文哲，增加了柯文哲勝選的可能性。
海嘯來了！侯友宜戴上安全帽抵擋無情的侵襲（翻攝畫面）。
無論是哪一種結果，面對即將來到的郭柯配海嘯，侯友宜都將成為無情侵襲的孤島，遠遠的觀看泛綠板塊的合體，而他只能默默在心中獨唱：「怎能瞬間，將我換掉。」
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