聯合國警告 全球升溫恐逾3°C
記者 宥傑/綜合報導
聯合國科學家小組再度警告，若依目前能源政策，世界可能無法達成巴黎氣候協定的目標。
聯合國支持的氣候科學家小組警告，全球把本世紀末氣溫升幅限制在攝氏1.5度以內的目標幾乎無法達成，世界氣溫升幅甚至可能超過攝氏3度，是巴黎氣候協定目標的兩倍。
在多國政府、城市、企業及投資人都做出淨零碳排的承諾後，聯合國氣候變遷專門委員會4日公布2021年8月以來的第三份報告，對各地溫室氣體排放量仍未受控制發出嚴厲警告。這份報告把重點放在人類仍未把手上的廣大技術、專業技術以及財富，充分用於確保未來的宜居氣候上。
報告指出，溫室氣體排放最晚必須在2025年前觸頂，才能有望達成控制氣溫升幅的目標，而根據各國在去年11月格拉斯哥氣候會議前所做的2030年減排承諾，21世紀末的氣溫升幅將超過攝氏1.5度，意味著巴黎氣候協定的第一個目標可能會在許多人的有生之年宣告失敗。
儘管從2010至2019年全球的碳排放速率，已從本世紀初的每年2.1%趨緩至1.3%，但IPCC仍呼籲各國政府與企業以更快速度 「大幅減少」化石燃料的全球使用量，以避免全球暖化的最嚴重衝擊。IPCC在最新報告說，在2030年前溫室氣體排放量須減少至少43%，才能避免全球氣溫在本世紀末時比工業革命高出攝氏1.5度以上。
聯合國祕書長古特瑞斯在聲明中說：「這不是寫小說或誇大其詞，這是科學家告訴我們，當前的能源政策將帶來什麼結果。」他表示，各國去年底在格拉斯哥開完氣候峰會後許下承諾，並懷著天真的樂觀離去，「但現有的氣候承諾仍意味著排放量會增加14%，而多數主要排放國連採取必要行動去兌現這些不足以達標的承諾都沒做到」。IPCC報告的共同主席斯基也說：「現在不行動就永遠來不及了。」
報告同時提出了幾乎所有產業可行或可預見的解決方案，例如仍有許多有成本效益的減碳機會，能夠達成2030年排放量減半的目標，也已有至少18國都證明，以十年時間減少溫室氣體排放是有可能辦到的，有些案例年減幅甚至達4%，有望把氣溫升幅控制在攝氏2度。
報告指出，太陽能成本從2010到2019年已減少85%，風電成本也降低55%，在許多地區的發電成本已比化石燃料還便宜。根據報告，核能與水力發電等零碳排或低碳排技術的發電量，在2019年的全球占比已達37%。報告也表示，機器人、人工智慧（AI）及物聯網（IoT）等「數位化」科技，是提高能源效率與管理再生電力的有力之道。
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